A thinning the herd thread

[CAwasinNJ]

Continued from the discussion that started in the KWCR thread at talkingutahradio.proboards.com/thread/1600/kwcr-sold?page=2

I do agree with what David said, though it really isn't that simple. It is related though. What I was getting at was just the shear number of stations. There are so many stations in a lot of markets (like ours) that it becomes economically unsustainable. If you keep dividing the pie up into smaller and smaller slices each slice becomes less filling. That's especially true on AM. It's been a while but as I understand it the SLC market had the highest percentage of radio stations per person in the country and that was over a decade ago. There's just been more since then. What would be best for the market as a whole would be to eliminate a number of stations so that the number of listeners would be divided up among fewer of them making the remaining ones stronger. That's not the way the world works though and each owner has a vested interest in getting as much money out of what they own as they can. That's the tradeoff of a free economy. A reasonable middle ground is to sell some stations to niche programmers who don't particularly care about ratings. They're happy to get their message out there and they aren't really competing for listeners and ad dollars. There isn't quite the variety of 60 different CHR stations, but 30 choices is still plenty. (Yes I'm exaggerating for effect.)

Another issue is simply physics. Along the Wasatch Front there are three different 96.7 stations, for example. Each one limits the coverage of the others. One stronger signal would be better than 3 weaker ones. But again that probably isn't going to happen.

[David]

To continue this thread: I read an interesting article at the InsideRadio site earlier today about the formats which have had the biggest gains and losses during the past decade. Not surprisingly, the biggest format losers were those targeted at listeners age 55+, such as oldies, adult standards, and soft a/c. These losses are attributable to the fact that advertisers consider the 18-54 demos more desirable than us old farts (55+). I think this is laughable, especially when one considers that many 18-34 year olds have long ago abandoned radio in favor of digital media and online radio listening. In fact, there's a huge number of people age 25 and under that don't even know about AM & FM radio, or if they do they largely ignore it. Those of us who are 50+ haven't abandoned radio; radio has abandoned us. Contrary to popular belief, not all of those who are 55+ are doddering old fools living in poverty or in assisted living facilities. There's still a huge number of the approximately 75 million baby boomers in the U.S. that are working full time into their 60's and 70's because they can't afford to retire; and they're still buying cars, groceries, personal care products, etc., as well as attending concerts and sporting events. For example, look at the success of Zoomer Radio (CFZM 740 AM, Toronto). The station has had great success in the 55+ age bracket playing pop standards for over a decade now. Closer to home, KSOP-AM consistently beats 50 KW (days) KALL 700 in the ratings books, even though it only has a 5 KW signal days and 500 watts at night.

There's clearly a market for the older demos that is currently being vastly under served by radio, and I don't understand why the major media companies haven't tapped into it. This is especially true in light of the increasing number of 18-34 year olds utilizing digital media platforms instead of listening to their local AM or FM stations. A station like KKAT-AM or KLO wouldn't have much to lose by tapping into the older demographic market by dumping their second rate talk formats in favor of oldies, adult standards, or soft A/C. I doubt they would do any worse in the ratings books than they are currently; in fact they would probably gain more listeners than they'd lose. As I stated earlier, the older demos haven't necessarily abandoned AM and FM radio; radio has abandoned us.

For further reading:

www.insideradio.com/here-are-the-biggest-format-gainers-and-losers-of-past/article_776039b8-8edc-11e7-a942-0bc33dbf93b7.html

[michaeljwyo]

Complete agreement there, David. I have a 14 yr old and a 16 yr old. I promise you they have no interest in the radio at all. They get exposure to it because of me because I listen to the radio. I have my own little station and they think that is cool but not because of the music that I play (lite ac) but just the fact that I have my own little station. So if you DO have a station targeting the older demo, which we did...1060 KDYL....how did THEY do in the ratings? Did they rank above the other chit chat stations and Spanish stations and religious stations? No I wouldn't expect anybody to rank above KSL-AM as far as AMs are concerned, but how did they do compared to the other AM's? As far as thinning the herd, I feel sorry for anyone that has one of those little mini fm transmitters that rebroadcasts your iPod over your car radio. My late wife used to have one and you talk about a pain when we would try to use it in salt lake. I remember I would tell her to tune it to 99.9 because it was about the only vacant place on the dial that wasn't right next to something else. Not even sure if that's still the case or if a translator or something is there now. It's not just salt lake. Just about any bigger city is the same way. Something on every other frequency. Since the onset of rimshots and ownership rule relaxations....well you know the rest if the story. The pie is about as divided as it can get and everybody's piece is very small.

[David]

As I recall, KDYL pulled anywhere from a 0.5-0.8 in the ratings books on a regular basis, and the station's ratings were sometimes as high as
1.0-1.2. Not earth shattering by any means, but a very respectable showing for an AM music station in this day and age. Unlike KLO and KKAT-AM, I can't recall a ratings book where KDYL wasn't listed. Of course, those ratings were before 1060 was LMA'ed and later sold to James Su/China Radio International. But KDYL had a loyal audience and an equally loyal advertiser base, which shows the viability of the oldies/adult standards/soft ac
formats when done correctly. If you look at Danny Kramer's Retro Media Allstars page <http://www.rmastars.com/>, many of his sponsors are companies that used to advertise on KDYL.

I can only recall 3 or 4 times that I've seen any of the Spanish language AM stations show in the ratings books, so I don't know how they manage to stay on the air. There's Spanish language stations on 730, 1490, 1550, and 1600 AM in the Salt Lake market, and they'll eventually be another station with a Spanish language format on 1230 if the new owner succeeds in getting all the necessary FCC clearances. Even with KXOL 1660 gone and 1640 now the home of the station formerly known as KTKK (K-TALK), that's still 5 Spanish language stations on AM in the Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo market that hardly ever show up in the ratings books.

I'm hopeful that once Vic Michael gets 1320 (KFNZ) back on the air, it won't be another sports, news/talk, religious, or Spanish language format station. The Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo area is desperately in need of something different from the standard AM formats we have now, specifically a format targeted towards older adults. Those of us who are 50+ are the generation that grew up listening to AM radio, not Generation X and the millennials. We still have money to spend, and would gladly welcome a format where the content isn't dictated by the younger demos that advertisers seem so enamored with.

[amanuensis]

The herd DOES need to be thinned but it's like the last presidential campaign--the stations are hanging in hoping someone else will bow out.

[David]

Sept 3, 2017 6:11:41 GMT -6 amanuensis said:

The herd DOES need to be thinned but it's like the last presidential campaign--the stations are hanging in hoping someone else will bow out.

I guess you could say that Zeta Holdings has done their part to thin the heard by shutting down KQMB and KSRR without telling anyone, including the FCC. Moreover, I doubt anyone would notice (or care) if KDYL went silent permanently, except for maybe James Su and CRI. But that's not likely to happen any time soon, especially with the U.S. in debt up to its eyeballs with China.

[CAwasinNJ]

David, unfortunately you have made a few assumptions that don't match what really seems to be happening. Here are the numbers from a poll on in-car audio listening from 2 years ago:

Broadcast radio (AM/FM) 63%
Media player/CD/DVD/Tape 11%
Satellite 15%
Internet 2%
Other 1%
I don't listen 4%

I doubt much has changed in 2 years, but take that how you will. Broadcast radio is far from dead. I'm also going to point out that as far as live streaming in-car this is very telling. The cell networks are already strained and that's with usage numbers in the single digits. (Even if usage doubled in the last 2 years it's still only 4%.) If any significant number of people replace other media with streaming the networks will melt. That's why even with additional technology and bandwidth, cell streaming isn't sustainable.

amanuensis hit the nail on the head. These companies have invested a lot of money. They're trying to get what they can out of it. It would be better for everyone if there were fewer choice (both from a business standpoint and a technological one, as I said) but everyone hopes it will be the other guy who bows out.

Over the last decade I've heard about every "55+ listeners are worth something!" argument there is and you've just made a few of them. Here's the problem. It isn't a question of whether older listeners listen to the radio, because they do. It isn't whether they buy stuff, because they do. It isn't whether they have money, because they do. The problem is whether it's worth as much to *market* to those demographics. If a 65 year old person (let's call him Joe) has been buying Coca-Cola for the last 30 years, what ad would make him suddenly decide to switch to Pepsi? It would have to be a heck of an ad. Joe decided decades ago that he likes Coke. Reaching him with a Pepsi ad is worthless. So what if he heard it. If it doesn't result in a sale it's wasted money. *That's* the problem. Younger demos aren't so set in their ways are are much more likely to be swayed by advertising. It's not pretty, but that's the reality and the advertising executives are fully aware of it. Since the return on the investment is less with older demos, the ad rates are lower. That makes the station less profitable and results in the owner looking for a format with more monetary potential. That's all there is to it.

Comparing a sports format where you have talking heads talking about the minutia of sports 21 hours a day to a music format is completely apples and oranges.

The last time KDYL showed in the public ratings was at the beginning of 2012 and it was under a half a share point. That was about a year before the flip. Occasionally they did better upwards of whole digits but that wasn't getting anyone anywhere. I'm pretty sure that station have to subscribe to be shown in the public ratings and KBMG and KDUT show up consistently (they're co-owned.) Different populations are also weighted i n ways I don't understand. I'm sure there's profit there, though I wouldn't even guess how much.

[David]

CA, while you make some very valid points, I don't see younger (18-34) demos as being big talk radio fans, so it's doubtful they'd listen to KKAT-AM or KLO. If anything, talk formats generally tend to skew towards an older demo, don't they? So my point is this: If you have an AM station that skews towards an older demo anyway, why go with a format that pulls minuscule ratings when you can have a format which regularly pulls an 0.5-1.0 share like KDYL did prior to its sale? If you have more people listening to a station, that's more exposure to a sponsor's ads, and more potential buyers, right?

I think that weak programming is one of the reasons AM radio is in trouble, and why stations like KLO and KKAT barely register in the ratings. KSL and KNRS are the kings of news/talk in this market, so why waste a signal on something that's available on 300-700 other radio stations across the country and streaming online as well? Why not find a format hole in a market and fill it instead? Speaking of wasted signals, I don't know why Cumulus chose to keep KKAT on the air instead of moving the KFNZ programming to 860 AM. That would have made more sense to me since KFNZ had a stronger following (and better ratings), but I digress. I'd listen to local radio more often if there was a station on AM or FM that really appeals to me, but since there isn't I usually listen to radio online when I'm at home and only listen to local radio when I'm driving.

Not all of us who are 50+ are so set in our ways that we won't try new brands or new products. At age 52 I bought a "foreign" car brand for the first time in 30+ years when I traded in my 2009 Mercury for a 2012 Toyota Corolla. I did a ton of research online after determining that I needed a more fuel efficient car with enough head and leg room to accommodate someone who's 6'3" and bought a Toyota instead of a Ford, Chevy, or some other "American" brand. As for soft drinks, I like both Pepsi and Coke and generally buy whichever one is on sale when I do my grocery shopping. I seriously doubt that I'm the only 50+ male who's not averse to trying new products, so I think there's some flexibility even when it comes to older demos.

I'd be curious to know what format you'd (or anyone else on the board) put on 1320 when it comes back on the air. Is there really any point in putting another news/talk, sports, religious, or Spanish language format station on AM in a market where the band is already cluttered with those formats? If it were me, I'd find a format hole and fill it, but I'm sure most station owners/programmers would rather go with a more "safe" type of AM format. Let the speculation begin!

[dspete]

1950's & early 60's

[CAwasinNJ]

David, you're right that talkradio definitely skews much older.

I'm also not saying that older people don't have flexibility in their shopping choices. I'm only saying they aren't AS flexible as younger demos. You can also make the argument that some categories of goods/services are only of interest to older people and those would be pointless to market to younger people. (Could you imagine hearing a retirement community ad on X96? That would be hilarious.) I'm just saying that the numbers show that you get more bang for your buck the lower the demos are (up to a point of course.)

The reason KKAT is on the air and hasn't flipped to anything else is because Cumulus corporate wants to show that their shows are cleared in the market. Whether anyone is actually listening to them is almost irrelevant. It serves its purpose.