[Ratings] Nov 10 - Dec 7 ("December")

[David]

KJMY was up substantially compared to its Holiday 2021 rating, setting a new listnership record. KSFI's rating also increased over its Holiday 2021 performance. KSL, KNRS, and KLO-FM were all down, while KSOP-FM saw an increase. KUUU appears to be going nowhere fast since its format tweak in August, falling even further than its previous ratings low set in June 2022. For that matter, KUDD isn't doing great, either. Maybe it's time for Broadway Media to re-think their decision to relegate "KOOL FM" to an HD subchannel.

radioinsight.com/headlines/246642/december-2022-11-10-12-7-nielsen-audio-ppm-ratings-day-3-4-record-highs-for-wend-kqac-kjmy/

[CAwasinNJ]

I corrected the title of the thread. The ratings released this week are the "December" ratings, even though most of it was in the calendar month of November. The "Holiday" period doesn't end until Wed Jan 4. The guide is here: www.arbitron.com/downloads/Survey_Schedule.pdf Make sure you use the PPM list on page 2.

There was a lot of weirdness in the ratings this month. Some of that can be attributed to Christmas, but I'm not sure how much. My 99.5 flipped before the period started, and as David noted set a station record according to Radio Insight's Chris Huff. The previous record was for Holiday 2021, which was itself up sharply from December 2021 which is comparable to what we're looking at right now. FM 100.3 was also higher this "December" than they were "December" of last year, both of which were up massively from their respective Novembers. With My 99.5 setting a record with Christmas it would be logical to think that would have hurt FM 100, but it didn't. BOTH did better this year than last, which is just crazy. Adding both stations together is just mind numbing.

Beyond the insane numbers of the stations running Christmas, there were a number of stations that cratered. KNRS' bubble finally burst after the midterms. KSL and KKAT 860 were also down sharply. Mix 105.1 also took a sharp downturn.

In its ongoing saga, 92.5 had the worst ratings for that frequency in the more than two years since Broadway Media resubscribed to Nielsen. We've talked ad infinitum about how badly the rhythmic format(s) have been doing there. Heck, they just barely beat two rimshot Spanish stations this month. Unless Broadway is seeing something we aren't, I'm almost ready to call the tweak to The Beat a failure and ditch it. As David alluded to, they have a format they can plug in to 92.5 tomorrow if they want. KOOL was doing very well before they dropped off the map when the 105.5 translator was repurposed. I do have a question. Would the listeners that were dumped rather unceremoniously back in late March give them a second chance? Then again, there isn't much to lose.

[David]

Thanks for the tip about the ratings periods, CA. As far as KOOL FM is concerned, I think they could build an audience again if Broadway moved the format to a "regular" FM frequency. However, they'd need to do an advertising blitz to inform listeners of the change, simply because its been nearly a year since Bob FM took over 105.5. I don't think there's many radio listeners that still find stations by scanning the AM & FM bands.

One wonders what happened to the KOOL FM listeners after Broadway Media moved Bob FM to 105.5. I can see some of them possibly switching to KODJ or KRSP, but the periodic fluctuations in the ratings of those two stations doesn't appear to account for all the listeners KOOL FM had before the switch last March.

[henry]

You know, I'm a fierce defender of U92/The Beat. I'm pretty disappointed. I would have expected a bump of *at least* +1.0 share point. Really curious how it does in actual demos and not just the 6+. But a drop in 6+ isn't exactly an indicator of great health.

Could this be the canary dropping dead in the mine? Younger demos are going to bail on FM before older ones. Maybe the Gen Z/alpha audience is simply gone.

Side story: Power 106, a legacy CHR/rhythmic station in Los Angeles, is going through the exact same collapse U92/The Beat has. However, Real 92.3 is solid. I'm not educated enough to know why one hip-hop station does so well, while the other one is dying. Perhaps answering that question would also answer why 92.5 is struggling in Utah.

[CAwasinNJ]

I still don't buy the argument that radio is dead. Pundits keep saying that <insert mass media type of the week> is dead and it keeps not happening. The latest one is how after COVID-19 the movie theater business was dead because people could watch movies at home instead. They said the same thing in the 1950's, by the way. It's still not true. If you offer people something they want, they'll buy it. If you offer them crap that they don't want, they won't. It's not that hard. The complicated parts are another matter. Two of them are figuring out what it is that people want and figuring out how to give it to them within the insane budget constraints of today's corporate environments. There aren't easy answers there.

Will there be changes and shifts? Of course. Will radio go away? Highly doubtful.

[amanuensis]

Radio isn't dead. But it is not healthy.

CA is of course right that if you offer people something they want, they will buy it. But with radio, it is not us the listeners that the stations are selling to. Instead they are selling to their advertisers.

There is a higher cost to the broadcasters for the quality product (e.g., traditional full service radio) than there is for the crap product. Maybe the cost of providing the quality product is so high that they can never get high enough ratings to offset that cost; advertisers may never be willing to pay that much for their spots.

There are a lot more avenues for advertisers to spend their money on now than there were back in the glory days. My employer spends a ton of money on marketing our products, but almost none of it goes to radio. Right or wrong, the belief is that other channels are more cost-effective at reaching the people that we want to reach.

[CAwasinNJ]

It isn't just that it costs more to create a quality product, though that's certainly true. Even if everything on the station level was the same as it was years ago (meaning the same ratings, reaching the same demos, the same cost per thousand to buy ad time, etc.) there's another huge cost that's dragging down all the big radio companies. Debt load. In their effort to buy up more stations, the big guys like iHeart, Cumulus, Audacy and so on had to take on a lot of debt to finance it. Paying off that debt takes a lot of money. Money that could otherwise be used to improve the on air product.

[buster]

Don’t think Broadway is ready to throw in the towel just yet on The Beat. They recently put Big Budah in mornings, with billboards up and down I-15.
While that more than likely won’t solve any underlying issues he is a big name and I’d assume they’d want give him some time to pop a number.
I’d like to think there’s still hope for hip hop in the market.
Perhaps tweaks to the music that mirrors more of the artists played during the mid/late 2000’s would be a start?

[henry]

Jan 3, 2023 1:27:51 GMT -6 CAwasinNJ said:

I still don't buy the argument that radio is dead. Pundits keep saying that <insert mass media type of the week> is dead and it keeps not happening. The latest one is how after COVID-19 the movie theater business was dead because people could watch movies at home instead. They said the same thing in the 1950's, by the way. It's still not true. If you offer people something they want, they'll buy it. If you offer them crap that they don't want, they won't. It's not that hard. The complicated parts are another matter. Two of them are figuring out what it is that people want and figuring out how to give it to them within the insane budget constraints of today's corporate environments. There aren't easy answers there.

Will there be changes and shifts? Of course. Will radio go away? Highly doubtful.

Let's not fall into all-or-nothing thinking here. There's a huge spectrum between "healthy" and "totally dead."

You mention Box office: "Healthy" versus "totally dead." It's neither. But even with meteoric recovery, it's still the worst box office since 2000 -- inflation adjusted, the worst since 1987!
Source: www.boxofficemojo.com/year/

That's not to say the movie industry disappears. It *does* mean that a lot of retail theaters may close or have to adapt uses. It does mean a recession for artists, writers, and producers in the film industry. A lack of total collapse also does not mean the industry is in good shape, either. Movies will be around forever. It's a huge industry (vertically). It may never see a traditional box office take quite like 2019 ever again. Future revenue will be a more diverse mix of streaming and box office.

---

Here's where radio is NOT the box office: A film product is unique. Marquee projects with millions of (or nearly a billion) dollars worth of work that the audience active *seeks* out, pulling the product into their lives. The distribution chain has a near-total monopoly on how you can purchase the product. Even if many buyers shift to streaming, it's still the same chain.

Radio is a product that finds listeners. Drivers want noise while they are driving. A specific song, genre, or type of talk. Radio enjoyed similar "monopoly" benefits for decades and arrogantly chugs along pretending that to be the case. Frankly, the in-car competition is FAR BETTER at meeting the listener's need than FM broadcast. Anyone who can't see it is (sorry to say) too old to "get" the technology. Android Auto and Apply Carplay are --this close-- from autostarting wirelessly when you start the car. That's FM's **last** party trick. And when that's gone, the industry goes from troubled to doomed.

KIIS billed $43 million last year. That's pretty awesome. But that's the same as WUSN (heard of it?) billed in 2002. (Source: www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20020427/NEWS06/20005253/wgn-recaptures-top-billing-honors). Inflation adjusted, KIIS billed 30% less than a forgettable country outlet in Marked #3.

(KIIS billed $60 million in 2003, which would be $92 million today. Source: www.radioworld.com/news-and-business/wltw-unseats-kiis-in-billing-rankings)

No, radio will never disappear. It's a huge industry (horizontally). It also will never see revenue numbers like the 1990s/2000s ever again. And frankly, NOBODY under the age of 40 gives a crap about it, except for a few stations that provide unique content you can't get better elsewhere (in this market, that's ONLY KSL's news blocks). ZHT, The Bull, Now, FM100... are outdated jukeboxes that simply exist because FM is still easier to thoughtlessly switch on for short trips. The convenience tipping point is close at hand. And there's NOTHING unique to make a listener actively *seek* out and pull the product.

Stations who do something UNIQUE to draw listeners to them (FM or new media) will maintain an audience. Jukeboxes will continue to slowly deteriorate and gradually vanish (WPLJ, WRQX, etc.)

I don't masochistically criticize radio because I want to see it die. I love radio (that's why I post here). But I cannot stand here and watch people stick their heads in the sand during an obvious media hurricane that's been brewing for 20 years. The storm surge is nearly here. It will be brutal.

Jan 6, 2023 22:57:36 GMT -6 buster said:

Don’t think Broadway is ready to throw in the towel just yet on The Beat. They recently put Big Budah in mornings, with billboards up and down I-15.
While that more than likely won’t solve any underlying issues he is a big name and I’d assume they’d want give him some time to pop a number.
I’d like to think there’s still hope for hip hop in the market.
Perhaps tweaks to the music that mirrors more of the artists played during the mid/late 2000’s would be a start?

On a more optimistic note, I have high hopes of Big Buddha. He "gets" the market. He and the new PD will certainly work to make as much out of 92.5 as their resources allow.

Being a jukebox for Gen Z/alpha was a dead end. Here's hoping being one for Millenials will be a bit better. But the headwinds are stacked against them. Remember that legendary KPWR in Los Angeles is facing the same issue. It's also testing more throwbacks. We'll all have to see if that works.

[CAwasinNJ]

FWIW, yes I know of WUSN in Chicago. It's the longtime country station there, and I wouldn't classify it as forgettable unless you hate country music. But that's not what we're talking about here.


I can't disagree with your general points henry, but there's still the one inescapable problem that is going to be somewhere between difficult and impossible to solve. Streaming is insanely inefficient and doesn't scale. The cell networks are having a very hard time keeping up with the demand for bandwidth as it is, and the percentage of time that in car audio listeners are using mobile devices is at a paltry 21% in the total population 13+. If you try to even double that, especially when you have bumper to bumper traffic on I-15 at 5PM and everyone is trying to hit the same cell tower, you're going to see piles of slag all over the valley where the cell towers used to be. (It's not even clear to me if the mobile devices category includes podcasts/music/whatever that were downloaded through a hard wire connection, but that would just make the situation even more dire.)

Please understand that I get the advantages of new technology. I use it every day. I also can clearly see how radio keeps shooting itself in the foot. The amount of sloppy on air product is amazing, and that never used to happen. But I do my best to try to be a realist.